— Pranjit Saikia The formation of pre-poll and post-poll alliances has been a common feature of Indian politics for the last one decade or so. The upcoming election is no exception. Following the same trend the AGP and the BJP has also embarked on a poll alliance recently. Though both the party claimed it as seat-sharing, the following comments indicated that it is not simply a seat-sharing understanding.
After huge uncertainties and deliberations both the parties have finalised their aim that is to root out the Congress party from power. Both the parties are not only aiming at the upcoming election, but they are thinking beyond that. The AGP has already declared with much enthusiasm that this alliance will last till the next Assembly election, so that they with the help of the BJP can form a non-Congress government in 2011. Now the vital question is, will this alliance remain same as it is today. History tells us that the AGP-BJP alliance had never been a successful one. In 2001 also both the parties came together to fight the election, but the honeymoon was over soon. But what miracle will happen this time around to sustain the alliance for so long?
The political history of AGP leaders reminds us that they have always been closer to the BJP. That is so because since the student movement of Assam, these people have been getting political lesson from to the BJP leaders. But when the political ambitions come in between, this closeness hardly has any meaning. In today’s context, both the parties have the common enemy that is Congress whom they really want to vote out of power. But when we look at both the parties individually, they have their own agendas. Apart from these, there are some leaders who have their own hidden personal ambitions.
At present AGP is not a well-managed party. There are some conflicts going on within the party which are quite known to all. These conflicts are not ideological, but simply of individual interests. Though the party has been trying to show the outside world that it is once again regrouped under one flag, but the reality is that they are simply not. Often there have been accusations leveled against the AGP leadership that the leaders who once again returned to AGP have not been given due importance in the party. Heavyweight like two-time Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta has indeed become a headache for the present leadership. The AGP leadership knows quite well that they cannot keep Mahanta out for long. Again they also know it very well that if he goes an important party position, it may take toll on their own political ambitions. So, it seems clear that the AGP leaderships in a catch-22 situation.
Looking at the BJP’s state of affairs, the party is desperately trying to set their foot strongly in the State politics. Though the party had already ruled the country for three times, it had failed to achieve a desired result in the State. Now, the question is why it is so? There are two reasons – first, the Assamese people have strong sense of secularism and second, there are no mass leaders in the State unit of the BJP.
Assam is massively a complex and diverse State, whose social-structural formation still represents a serious obstacle to taking over of State power by the Hindutva politics. The Hindutva politics deeply rooted in the outlook of its core base, the upper-caste Hindi-speaking Hindus of north India, continues to have rather little resonance with numerous castes, ethnic, linguistic and regional groups in India. So, the Assamese people who strongly believe in togetherness, fraternity and equality, hardly have any interest in such divisive politics. Moreover, the party has failed to produce any mass leader in the State. Most of the leaders are at the mercy of the national leaders. Because of this reason coupled with weak organisational activity, the party has not yet been able to mobilise people successfully towards their agenda.
Again, over the period of time, the national leadership has never taken any active interest in solving the problems of the State. During their rule at the Centre, they never thought about the problems of the State. Rather, these leaders are more interested in north Indian politics than the politics of Assam as well as the northeastern region. Their gesticulation itself proves that Assam is not an important State for them. On the basis of these, one can hardly say that the party has any bright future in the State.
But realising the fact that, in a fragmented people’s verdict every single seat is very necessary to regain the power at the centre, the party entered into a poll pact with AGP. Actually, this poll pact largely aims at regaining power rather than serving the people of the State. The statements come out from both the parties reflect their intention. The BJP is very keen on expanding their mass base by using AGP’s organisational capacity and AGP is trying to recapture power with the help of the BJP. The moment there is clash of interests, the alliance will break down. Moreover, as it is a centrally made alliance, many grassroots level activists, especially of AGP, have no approval.
Another fact is that, by entering into such a thoughtless alliance AGP has created many problems for itself. Because of this only AGP will lose ground among the minority people. As minorities play a decisive role in certain constituencies, AGP cannot afford to lose these votes. AGP has been trying to be an alternative to Congress. So, those minorities who fed up with the dirty politics of the Congress would have certainly voted for AGP. But in such a situation, instead of voting for AGP, these people will go for AUDF. In this context, this alliance could prove to be a suicidal step for AGP’s future.
(The writer teaches Political Science in Biswanath College). ASSAM TRIBUNE
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