Talmizur Rahman
AUDF supremo Badruddin Ajmal played a perfect spoilsport for the ruling Congress in Assam in the recent parliamentary polls. This exactly was what the State Congress feared, despite putting up a brave front, and Ajmal left no stone unturned to torment the ruling party at the hustings on this count. The writing was on the wall even before the AUDF was formally launched prior to the 2006 Assembly polls in the State: that it was eying the traditional Congress vote bank comprising the Muslims of immigrant origin.
In the two years that followed, the AUDF concentrated in building up its base in immigrant Muslim-dominated areas of the State. The fact that it succeeded in making vital inroads into the traditional Congress vote bank comprising Muslims of immigrant origin was again evident during the panchayat polls. Beginning with the Assembly polls, Ajmal perhaps began to realize with every passing day that he could make the Congress run for its money for the vote of virtually every immigrant Muslim voter of the State. While the response of the Muslims of immigrant origin emboldened Ajmal’s resolve, it appeared to be enough to send shivers down the spine of the Assam unit of the Congress. Hence, at various points of time issues like bringing the AUDF into the Congress fold or at least striking a working alliance with Ajmal surfaced within the Congress. Likewise, there was also vehement opposition to any such move. Beginning with Chief minister Tarun Gogoi, a large number of frontline Congress leaders of the State perhaps felt that going hand in hand with someone apparently as authoritarian and overambitious as Badruddin Ajmal could very well spell disaster and political oblivion for several State Congress leaders.
Hence, even before the last Lok Sabha polls were announced by the Election Commission, it was not surprising to see delegations of State Congress leaders camping in Delhi to impress upon the high command not to go for any poll tie-up with the AUDF. Side by side a section of State Congress leaders without the spine to confront Ajmal himself was reportedly interested in such an alliance and had even called on Sonia Gandhi with such a proposal if media reports are to be believed. However, the lobby in the State Congress opposed to any tie-up with the AUDF managed to impress upon the Congress high command to go it alone in Assam. The State Congress leaders were clear in their stand that the only option left before Ajmal in this respect was to go for an outright merger of the AUDF with the Congress.
On the other hand, the shrewd tactician that he is and with lakhs of Muslims of immigrant origin solidly behind him, Ajmal knew very well that he should not fall into any such trap if he were to grow into a centre of power. No wonder, the last parliamentary polls witnessed the Congress and the AUDF involved in a cut-throat contest in immigrant Muslim-dominated areas. The record that the Congress won seven seats and the AUDF only one does not reveal true picture. It seemed that Ajmal made it the cardinal point of his agenda to not only cut into the traditional Congress vote bank of immigrant Muslims but also to leave no stone unturned to defeat Congress candidates. For instance, as anybody else, Ajmal knew from the bottom of his heart that even by the wildest stretch of imagination his party had no chance of winning from the prestigious Guwahati seat. And yet at the eleventh hour the AUDF fielded a candidate in Guwahati, and that too at the cost of betraying the NCP, upsetting the arrangement agreed upon within the so-called Third Front to leave the seat for the NCP. Ajmal’s purpose of fielding a candidate in Guwahati was as clear as daylight for all to see — to snatch away a chunk of the immigrant Muslim votes to ensure the defeat of the Congress candidate. And that is exactly how it transpired at the end of the day.
By Ajmal’s own admission, the AUDF has topped in 27 assembly segments while coming second and third in 20 others in the last parliamentary polls. Now that the AUDF has amassed so much of political capital in a span of just two years by causing the Congress to bleed, there is no reason to believe that the AUDF supremo would swallow any sop that the Congress might offer between now and the Assembly polls in the State in 2011. On the contrary, the success in terms of votes polled is only likely to embolden Ajmal to adopt a still more aggressive attitude towards the Congress in the State. More than anybody else, Ajmal knows that only such an approach might lead to the realization of his dream of the Congress approaching him with a political roadmap that would provide him a dominating role and not the other way round. And if rumours mills are anything to go by, only such a situation would be satisfying for Ajmal as it would pave the way for the realization of his cherished dream of becoming the Chief Minister of the State. Rumours also have it that nothing short of the Chief Minister’s chair would be satisfying for Badruddin Ajmal.
Perhaps Tarun Gogoi’s statement ‘‘Who is Badruddin?’’ would continue to serve not just as a bitter pill for Ajmal but also as a booster to take on the State Congress leadership headlong reportedly with a view to fulfilling his dream of becoming an undisputed centre of power in Assam. If Ajmal’s approach in the recent Lok Sabha polls is any indication of his gameplan, one feels that the political maulana would go to any extent to damage the prospect of the Congress even if it amounts to victory of candidates of the BJP — a party which he opposes at least verbally to keep his vote bank intact.
On feels Ajmal’s gameplan centres around strategies that would ensure further inroads into the traditional Congress vote bank comprising Muslims of immigrant origin and if necessary play spoilsport in the superlative degree to force the State Congress leadership on its knees, while at the same time keep the Congress high command in good humour.
The dynamics of history appear to have made a full circle. The vote bank of Muslims of immigrant origin or the ‘Ali’ vote bank is a creation of the Congress. Presently Ajmal is paying back the Congress in its own coin. Again, while immigration is a continuing feature, it would not be surprising if, in disguise, the two parties begin to lock horns over the issue of loyalty of the new entrants!
Meanwhile, fearing the worse, an anti-Gogoi lobby, comprising several State Congress leaders, is reportedly trying to impress upon the party high command to visualize the ground reality and iron out a working relationship with Ajmal to avoid further erosion of the Congress vote bank comprising the Muslims of immigrant origin.
Times ahead will be interesting.
(The writer is a journalist) THE SENTINEL
AUDF supremo Badruddin Ajmal played a perfect spoilsport for the ruling Congress in Assam in the recent parliamentary polls. This exactly was what the State Congress feared, despite putting up a brave front, and Ajmal left no stone unturned to torment the ruling party at the hustings on this count. The writing was on the wall even before the AUDF was formally launched prior to the 2006 Assembly polls in the State: that it was eying the traditional Congress vote bank comprising the Muslims of immigrant origin.
In the two years that followed, the AUDF concentrated in building up its base in immigrant Muslim-dominated areas of the State. The fact that it succeeded in making vital inroads into the traditional Congress vote bank comprising Muslims of immigrant origin was again evident during the panchayat polls. Beginning with the Assembly polls, Ajmal perhaps began to realize with every passing day that he could make the Congress run for its money for the vote of virtually every immigrant Muslim voter of the State. While the response of the Muslims of immigrant origin emboldened Ajmal’s resolve, it appeared to be enough to send shivers down the spine of the Assam unit of the Congress. Hence, at various points of time issues like bringing the AUDF into the Congress fold or at least striking a working alliance with Ajmal surfaced within the Congress. Likewise, there was also vehement opposition to any such move. Beginning with Chief minister Tarun Gogoi, a large number of frontline Congress leaders of the State perhaps felt that going hand in hand with someone apparently as authoritarian and overambitious as Badruddin Ajmal could very well spell disaster and political oblivion for several State Congress leaders.
Hence, even before the last Lok Sabha polls were announced by the Election Commission, it was not surprising to see delegations of State Congress leaders camping in Delhi to impress upon the high command not to go for any poll tie-up with the AUDF. Side by side a section of State Congress leaders without the spine to confront Ajmal himself was reportedly interested in such an alliance and had even called on Sonia Gandhi with such a proposal if media reports are to be believed. However, the lobby in the State Congress opposed to any tie-up with the AUDF managed to impress upon the Congress high command to go it alone in Assam. The State Congress leaders were clear in their stand that the only option left before Ajmal in this respect was to go for an outright merger of the AUDF with the Congress.
On the other hand, the shrewd tactician that he is and with lakhs of Muslims of immigrant origin solidly behind him, Ajmal knew very well that he should not fall into any such trap if he were to grow into a centre of power. No wonder, the last parliamentary polls witnessed the Congress and the AUDF involved in a cut-throat contest in immigrant Muslim-dominated areas. The record that the Congress won seven seats and the AUDF only one does not reveal true picture. It seemed that Ajmal made it the cardinal point of his agenda to not only cut into the traditional Congress vote bank of immigrant Muslims but also to leave no stone unturned to defeat Congress candidates. For instance, as anybody else, Ajmal knew from the bottom of his heart that even by the wildest stretch of imagination his party had no chance of winning from the prestigious Guwahati seat. And yet at the eleventh hour the AUDF fielded a candidate in Guwahati, and that too at the cost of betraying the NCP, upsetting the arrangement agreed upon within the so-called Third Front to leave the seat for the NCP. Ajmal’s purpose of fielding a candidate in Guwahati was as clear as daylight for all to see — to snatch away a chunk of the immigrant Muslim votes to ensure the defeat of the Congress candidate. And that is exactly how it transpired at the end of the day.
By Ajmal’s own admission, the AUDF has topped in 27 assembly segments while coming second and third in 20 others in the last parliamentary polls. Now that the AUDF has amassed so much of political capital in a span of just two years by causing the Congress to bleed, there is no reason to believe that the AUDF supremo would swallow any sop that the Congress might offer between now and the Assembly polls in the State in 2011. On the contrary, the success in terms of votes polled is only likely to embolden Ajmal to adopt a still more aggressive attitude towards the Congress in the State. More than anybody else, Ajmal knows that only such an approach might lead to the realization of his dream of the Congress approaching him with a political roadmap that would provide him a dominating role and not the other way round. And if rumours mills are anything to go by, only such a situation would be satisfying for Ajmal as it would pave the way for the realization of his cherished dream of becoming the Chief Minister of the State. Rumours also have it that nothing short of the Chief Minister’s chair would be satisfying for Badruddin Ajmal.
Perhaps Tarun Gogoi’s statement ‘‘Who is Badruddin?’’ would continue to serve not just as a bitter pill for Ajmal but also as a booster to take on the State Congress leadership headlong reportedly with a view to fulfilling his dream of becoming an undisputed centre of power in Assam. If Ajmal’s approach in the recent Lok Sabha polls is any indication of his gameplan, one feels that the political maulana would go to any extent to damage the prospect of the Congress even if it amounts to victory of candidates of the BJP — a party which he opposes at least verbally to keep his vote bank intact.
On feels Ajmal’s gameplan centres around strategies that would ensure further inroads into the traditional Congress vote bank comprising Muslims of immigrant origin and if necessary play spoilsport in the superlative degree to force the State Congress leadership on its knees, while at the same time keep the Congress high command in good humour.
The dynamics of history appear to have made a full circle. The vote bank of Muslims of immigrant origin or the ‘Ali’ vote bank is a creation of the Congress. Presently Ajmal is paying back the Congress in its own coin. Again, while immigration is a continuing feature, it would not be surprising if, in disguise, the two parties begin to lock horns over the issue of loyalty of the new entrants!
Meanwhile, fearing the worse, an anti-Gogoi lobby, comprising several State Congress leaders, is reportedly trying to impress upon the party high command to visualize the ground reality and iron out a working relationship with Ajmal to avoid further erosion of the Congress vote bank comprising the Muslims of immigrant origin.
Times ahead will be interesting.
(The writer is a journalist) THE SENTINEL
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